What's moving
Biggest playoff-odds swings over the last 7 days — the part standings tables don't show.
Games that mattered
Recent results ranked by how much they moved the picture. The swing beside each team is what that game did to its playoff odds — the “Odds, 7 days” column in the tables below covers a full week, so the two will differ.
American Football Conference
Division leaders
More stats (shows the rest of the columns in the table below)
| Team | Status | W-L | PCT | GB to top seed | Streak | Proj | Playoff odds | Odds, 7 days | Odds, 21 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | In position | 3-0 | 1.000 | – | W3 | 12-5 | – | 70% → 96% | ||
 Buffalo Bills | In position | 3-0 | 1.000 | – | W3 | 12-5 | ▼ -1 | 87% → 97% | ||
 Jacksonville Jaguars | In position | 2-1 | .667 | 1 | W1 | 11-6 | ▲ +19 | 52% → 91% | ||
 Pittsburgh Steelers | In position | 2-1 | .667 | 1 | W1 | 8-9 | ▲ +11 | 39% → 34% |
Wild card — 3 spots availableOrdered by record, not by odds — the cut line follows the standings.
More stats (shows the rest of the columns in the table below)
| Team | Status | W-L | PCT | GB to WC | Streak | Proj | Playoff odds | Odds, 7 days | Odds, 21 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | In position | 3-0 | 1.000 | +1 | W3 | 8-8 | ▲ +15 | 6% → 38% | ||
 Baltimore Ravens | In position | 2-1 | .667 | – | W1 | 11-6 | – | 79% → 89% | ||
 Denver Broncos | In position | 2-1 | .667 | – | W2 | 9-8 | ▲ +17 | 54% → 58% | ||
 Cleveland Browns | In the hunt | 2-1 | .667 | – | W2 | 7-10 | ▲ +5 | 6% → 11% | ||
 Cincinnati Bengals | In the hunt | 2-1 | .667 | – | L1 | 11-6 | ▼ -10 | 70% → 80% | ||
 New York Jets | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L2 | 7-10 | ▼ -5 | 5% → 13% | ||
 New England Patriots | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L1 | 8-9 | ▼ -29 | 52% → 38% | ||
 Indianapolis Colts | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | W1 | 8-9 | ▲ +3 | 39% → 28% | ||
 Miami Dolphins | In the hunt | 0-3 | .000 | 2 | L3 | 3-14 | – | 2% → <1% | ||
 Los Angeles Chargers | In the hunt | 0-3 | .000 | 2 | L3 | 6-11 | ▼ -2 | 69% → 6% | ||
 Tennessee Titans | In the hunt | 0-3 | .000 | 2 | L3 | 4-13 | ▼ -4 | 12% → 1% | ||
 Houston Texans | In the hunt | 0-3 | .000 | 2 | L3 | 8-9 | ▼ -21 | 60% → 22% |
National Football Conference
Division leaders
More stats (shows the rest of the columns in the table below)
| Team | Status | W-L | PCT | GB to top seed | Streak | Proj | Playoff odds | Odds, 7 days | Odds, 21 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | In position | 3-0 | 1.000 | – | W3 | 11-6 | ▲ +6 | 30% → 76% | ||
 San Francisco 49ers | In position | 3-0 | 1.000 | – | W3 | 13-4 | ▲ +1 | 67% → 98% | ||
 Philadelphia Eagles | In position | 2-1 | .667 | 1 | L1 | 9-8 | ▼ -33 | 59% → 39% | ||
 Carolina Panthers | In position | 1-2 | .333 | 2 | L1 | 7-10 | ▼ -1 | 18% → 28% |
Wild card — 3 spots availableOrdered by record, not by odds — the cut line follows the standings.
More stats (shows the rest of the columns in the table below)
| Team | Status | W-L | PCT | GB to WC | Streak | Proj | Playoff odds | Odds, 7 days | Odds, 21 days | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | In position | 2-1 | .667 | – | W1 | 11-6 | ▲ +9 | 71% → 77% | ||
 Chicago Bears | In position | 2-1 | .667 | – | W1 | 10-7 | ▲ +35 | 46% → 72% | ||
 Seattle Seahawks | In position | 2-1 | .667 | – | L1 | 11-6 | ▼ -10 | 61% → 75% | ||
 New York Giants | In the hunt | 2-1 | .667 | – | W1 | 6-11 | ▲ +2 | 21% → 2% | ||
 Los Angeles Rams | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L1 | 10-7 | ▼ -12 | 85% → 56% | ||
 Dallas Cowboys | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L1 | 10-7 | ▲ +11 | 53% → 67% | ||
 New Orleans Saints | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L1 | 8-9 | ▼ -7 | 24% → 55% | ||
 Washington Commanders | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | W1 | 8-9 | ▲ +11 | 20% → 19% | ||
 Atlanta Falcons | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | W1 | 6-11 | ▲ +11 | 32% → 13% | ||
 Green Bay Packers | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L1 | 7-9 | ▼ -15 | 64% → 13% | ||
 Arizona Cardinals | In the hunt | 1-2 | .333 | 1 | L2 | 5-12 | – | 2% → 1% | ||
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | In the hunt | 0-3 | .000 | 2 | L3 | 5-11 | ▼ -9 | 46% → 9% |
- Clinched mathematically in — nothing can change it
- In position holds a playoff spot today, not clinched
- In the hunt outside the field, still alive
- Eliminated mathematically out
Playoff odds: ESPN's Football Power Index · “Odds, 7 days” = change over the last seven days · “Odds, 21 days” lines share one scale · Updated
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the NFL playoff format work?
Fourteen teams reach the postseason — seven per conference: four division winners and three wild cards. Only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a bye.
What do the playoff odds mean?
The odds come from ESPN's Football Power Index: the chance, by their model, that a team reaches the postseason. They move as games finish, even on days a team does not play. The 7-day change and the trend line are from PaceToWin's own stored history of those numbers.
What does “GB to WC” mean?
Games behind the last wild-card spot — not games behind the division leader. It is the number that actually matters in a wild-card chase: a team can be far back in its own division while sitting half a game from a playoff berth.
What does the “Odds, 7 days” column show?
How much a team's playoff odds have moved over the last seven days, from our own stored history. It is the part almost no other free site shows.
What does “In position” mean?
The team holds a playoff spot in today's standings but has not clinched it. “Clinched” only appears once it is mathematically certain.
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